One of the best ways to forecast future events is through past trends. The U.S. Supreme Court hears the majority of its cases after a decision is rendered by one of the 13 federal courts of appeals. Since there are 13 circuits and the Supreme Court takes somewhere between 60 and 70 cases each term…
Category: 2022 Term
Two Decisions Down and Fifty-Eight to Go
The Supreme Court released two decisions on January 23 to kick off its merits opinion releases for this term. One was a unanimous decision in Arellano v. McDonough, a case about the effective date of an award of disability compensation to a veteran of the United States military which was authored by Justice Barret while…
It’s Not Your Imagination — The Supreme Court is Less Efficient
The Supreme Court is now less efficient according to multiple measures. Since the Court released its first decision in an orally argued case this morning, Monday January 23rd 2023, the 112 days between the first oral argument and the first opinion of this term set a new record for the longest time this has ever…
Why 2022 is Already a Term Like No Other
This is a historic year for the Supreme Court. After a second term with a conservative supermajority, the Court is once again positioned to make key decisions along ideological lines. While the Roberts Court will be remembered for its ideological splits and key decisions in the areas of individual rights and liberties, it will also…
Supremely Slow Out of the Gates
The Supreme Court has hit several lows in the last few years. It recently had the lowest number of decisions in over a century and it has significantly slowed down its pace of decision releases. It had set some new records as well including the highest rate of 6 to 3 decisions ever and the…
How Oral Argument Data Back Up Expectations in the Court’s Affirmative Action Cases
Yesterday the Supreme Court heard the long-awaited oral arguments in cases that may overturn the right to affirmative action in higher education. Some states like Michigan already banned action through popular vote. For states that still allow it though the question of constitutionality is on the Court’s agenda. In Grutter v. Bollinger, decided in 2003,…
Do Early Term Arguments Lead to Less Contentious Decisions?
The Supreme Court is known to leave its most poignant decisions for the end of the term. The end of last term included among other decisions the release of Dobbs (abortion), Bruen (gun control), and WV v. EPA (EPA’s Clean Air Act policy). One of these decisions, Bruen, was argued in the first two months…
A Definitive Look at the New OAs Led by KBJ
Something is clearly different this Supreme Court term after only two weeks of oral arguments. There is a chippiness in the air that wasn’t overtly present before. The distinction between the left and the right of the Court is still in play, but newly appointed Justice Jackson has had control of the proceedings far more…
Great Coverage of October Arguments
Empirical SCOTUS has been highlighted in a number of articles this past month mainly for its coverage of the justices’ activity (mainly KBJ) at oral arguments. Here is a rundown of the articles: You can find Adam on Twitter @AdamSFeldman and on LinkedIn here
No Doppelgänger for Jackson
Justice Jackson is the first justice in recent times to enter a Court with a clear six justice bloc in the majority. Unfortunately (for her) she is in the minority of this grouping. In the first week of oral arguments this term Jackson more or less solidified her position on the left of the Court…
Female Justices Take the Reins to Start Off SCOTUS’ 2022 Oral Arguments
The first argument of 2022 in Sackett v. EPA also marked Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson’s first argument as a newly appointed justice. After several of her peers on the Court completed introductory questions, Justice Jackson chimed in by piggybacking on top of the previous question asked by Justice Kagan. Justice Jackson began by asking about…
SCOTUS Petitions and Cases I’m Awaiting
The main mechanism by which parties send their cases to the Supreme Court for review is by cert petitions. With around 8,000 petitions each year from which the justices choose around 60-70 to hear on oral argument, the Court needs to find ways to quickly determine the most worthy cases. One of the ways the…
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